Major Long-term Trends

    Listed below are the major long-trends that are expected to impact business in the United States over the next ten to twenty years. 

Economic

• End of real growth in hourly wages in 1972
      Average Hourly Earnings - 1947-1998
      Average Weekly Earnings By Education - 1979-1998
      Full-time Weekly Earnings by Education - 1979 vs. 1998
• Embedded cost of capital still lower in Japan than in US, although rising.
• Continuing rise in debt to external parties
• Increasing internationalization and inter-dependence
• US still has high economic mobility for the individual

Social, cultural, demographic, and geographic

• Advent of 24/7 workweek replaces 8/5
• Working women
• If free movement of capital, business, and workers, income equalizes across geographic regions
• Aging of population, particularly those over 64
      U. S. Demographic Trends
      Aging of the U.S. Population (1)
      Aging of the U.S. Population (2)
      US Population Projections 2000 2025 & 2050
      Germany Population Projections 2000 2025 & 2050
      Japan Population Projections 2000 2025 & 2050
      UK Population Projections 2000 2025 & 2050
• Beginning to delay retirement and/or part-time work
• Increase in medical costs and change in who pays them
      U.S. Health Care Expenditures
• Relative decline in importance of developed countries
      Top 10 Countries By Population - 1950-2050

Labor and employment

• Increase in labor market turnover
• Actual hours worked in US rising vs. falling in other developed countries
• Change in four sectors of the labor force
• Reduction in growth of labor force
• Change in composition of labor force
      Percentage Foreign Born Population - 1850-1990
      Projected Change in U.S. Labor Force Makeup - 1998-2008
      Rising Immigration to the U.S. - 1901-1990
• Skill level increase in American jobs
      Occupational U.S. Labor Force Changes - 1998-2008
• US wages relatively low vs. competing countries
      International Comparison Mfg. Labor Costs - 1975-1999

Political, legal, and governmental

• Minimum wage
• Metric system
• Dismantling of farm subsidy system
• Increasing inability of government to solve complex problems
• Trend towards outsourcing
• Declining educational system
      Elementary & Secondary School Performance
      U.S. Level of Education
      U.S. School Enrollment Trends

Technological

• Tend to be discontinuous (effect of a change is rapid)
• E-commerce
• Technology is increasingly part of a "system"
• Telecommuting, virtual teams and virtual workplaces
      Virtual Teams
      Virtual Workplaces
• Computers/communication, materials science, and biotechnology are leading technology-driven change

Competitive

• Growth in large retailers
• Consumer demand for value
• Rise in sale of used capital products
• Increasing emphasis on selling the setting rather than a product
• More inter-industry competition (e.g., TV vs. newspapers; copiers vs. laser printers and scanners)

© Copyright 2000 Raymond S. Kulzick. All rights reserved. 990701.