Major External Long-Term Trends

Major External Long-term Trends

Listed below are the major long-trends that are expected to impact business in the United States over the next ten to twenty years.

Economic

End of real growth in hourly wages in 1972
    Average Hourly Earnings - 1947-1998
    Average Weekly Earnings By Education - 1979-1998
    Full-time Weekly Earnings by Education - 1979 vs. 1998
Embedded cost of capital still lower in Japan than in US, although rising.
Continuing rise in debt to external parties
Increasing internationalization and inter-dependence
US still has high economic mobility for the individual

Social, cultural, demographic, and geographic

Advent of 24/7 workweek replaces 8/5
Working women
If free movement of capital, business, and workers, income equalizes across geographic regions
Aging of population, particularly those over 64
    U. S. Demographic Trends
    Aging of the U.S. Population (1)
    Aging of the U.S. Population (2)
    US Population Projections 2000 2025 & 2050
    Germany Population Projections 2000 2025 & 2050
    Japan Population Projections 2000 2025 & 2050
    UK Population Projections 2000 2025 & 2050
Beginning to delay retirement and/or part-time work
Increase in medical costs and change in who pays them
U.S. Health Care Expenditures
Relative decline in importance of developed countries
Top 10 Countries By Population - 1950-2050

Labor and employment

Increase in labor market turnover
Actual hours worked in US rising vs. falling in other developed countries
Change in four sectors of the labor force
Reduction in growth of labor force
Change in composition of labor force
    Percentage Foreign Born Population - 1850-1990
    Projected Change in U.S. Labor Force Makeup - 1998-2008
    Rising Immigration to the U.S. - 1901-1990
Skill level increase in American jobs
Occupational U.S. Labor Force Changes - 1998-2008
US wages relatively low vs. competing countries
International Comparison Mfg. Labor Costs - 1975-1999
Increase in self-employment

Political, legal, and governmental

Minimum wage
Metric system
Dismantling of farm subsidy system
Increasing inability of government to solve complex problems
Trend towards outsourcing
Declining educational system
    Elementary & Secondary School Performance
    U.S. Level of Education
    U.S. School Enrollment Trends

Technological

Tend to be discontinuous (effect of a change is rapid)
E-commerce
Technology is increasingly part of a "system"
Telecommuting, virtual teams and virtual workplaces
Virtual Teams
Virtual Workplaces
Computers/communication, materials science, and biotechnology are leading technology-driven change

Competitive

Growth in large retailers
Consumer demand for value
Rise in sale of used capital products
Increasing emphasis on selling the setting rather than a product
More inter-industry competition (e.g., TV vs. newspapers; copiers vs. laser printers and scanners)

R. S. Kulzick – last updated 9/26/2007

Home

Main Page

Contact